ROTATE 2012

Believe it or not, it has indeed taken us this long to analyze and compile our data from our trip back in July…that and partial procrastination. We thought instead of recapping our trip from our memory (which is no longer reliable being it was five months back), we’d post the contents of our travel logs along with some pictures and fun stuff like that.

               

JULY 7, 2012

We left our home in Kitsap County at 4:30 this morning. By my luck, I inadvertently woke up at 3:45 am, and found it a waste of time to bother with going back to sleep (and I feared sleeping through my 4:00 alarm). We took highway 305 down to Winslow and got in the rather short line for the 5:00 am ferry into Seattle. Upon our arrival in Seattle, we were greeted by a magnificent sun rise at approximately 6:15 AM. We merged onto I-90 and followed it until we reached the central Washington city of Ellensburg, where we stopped for our “quality” breakfast at Perkins, consisting of eggs, sausage and coffee around nine in the morning. From there we followed I-90 until we arrived in Spokane, WA around noon. Because the time were making was so good, we opted to walk around a small park and stop for coffee at Starbucks. Later passing through Couer D’ Alene, ID and into Montana, we stopped in our favorite little rest stop, known as St, Regis, MT. We’ve always loved this little gas station/ restaurant/ tourist store simply because the trinket shop has the best of everything in Montana. We all refreshed ourselves in the glory known as Flat Head Lake Soda Company’s famed Huckleberry soda.  As we stepped outside we noticed several thunderstorms going up to our direct south. We followed I-90 into Missoula before jumping onto highway 93 through the Bitterroot Valley of south western Montana. We continually were blessed with the chance to watch several thunderstorms pop up around us. It wasn’t until we entered Hamilton, MT that we encountered nature’s car wash and witnessed several lovely lightning strikes.

                By tradition rules, when we entered into Darby, MT (our base for the trip) we played Guns and Roses’ “Paradise City.” I state again, this was all in the name of tradition. We pulled into our bases for the week and unloaded out mass amounts of equipment, ended the night with a dinner of spaghetti, and went straight to bed.

Storms firing south of St. Regis, MT

Coming off the ferry in Seattle, WA

 

 

 

               

 

 

 

 

JULY 8, 2012

I shall admit that sleeping in this morning was one of the best things ever. Ten hours of sleep after being up for more that eighteen hours of being awake and ten of that spent driving is the best thing in the world…next to chocolate.

                Because the weather pattern for the day was relatively calm, we drove into Hamilton around noon, found an old road house diner and had a fantastic lunch.  After lunch we meandered down to the Bitterroot River and found a lovely swimming spot and spent about two hours doing so in the hundred degree heat.

                We arrived back at our base around four in the afternoon and enjoyed a passing thunderstorm with the dogs that had come to visit (Casey and Duke ♥).

(TOP LEFT: CASEY)
(BOTTOM LEFT: DUKE)
(RIGHT: SWIMMING IN THE BITTERROOT)

 

JULY 9, 2012

We arose this morning with a start that I like to call “The fall out of bed special.” Overnight the model maps had changed their minds and were forecasting a more active day with the possibility of severe storms in the area. After the quick scare, we ruled out the possibility of tornadoes and spent the day reviewing the next day’s models and forecasts before setting up that afternoon. Mid-way through the setup of out equipment, a large thunderstorm rolled through and we were forced to bring our mesonet inside until the storm passed. We then relaxed with a microwave diner on the front porch and watched the storms roll though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JULY 10, 2012

Today was the day. I woke up at 5:30 am and prepared myself for the day. At 6 am, I made the coffee before heading outside and loading up the vehicle with our fully assembled equipment. The Lord blessed with a wonderful omen disguised as a golden sunrise layered in smoke form the nearby wildfires.

            After a very quick breakfast and the downing of two cups of coffee, our team headed out of the Bitterroot Valley around eight in the morning. We arrived in Hamilton thirty minutes later and found the towns to be stuck under thunderstorms tinted purple against a glowing orange sky due to the smoke form the wildfires. I myself was unable to decipher the feelings of fear from the feeling or excitement and wonder. We headed over the very dreaded Skalkoho Pass (if you’ve very taken it and you’re afraid of heights, you’ll understand). The thundered storms followed us until they were partially blocked by the Rocky Mountains, thus giving us time to waste and relax before headed out again. We found a small lake, which we dubbed “Mosquito Lake” because of the amount of Mosquitos we were busy warding off while fishing. I, Fe Schell, do claim the title of most fish caught, even if they were all stupid a slightly physically disabled. I managed to catch a fish without a tail, then I somehow and I have no clue how this happened- I caught a fish by its ass. Not joking, the hook was in the wrong hole. I still feel bad for that fish to this day.

            We later drove into Phillipsburg, MT for lunch, explored the local history museum and invaded the two story candy shop. By now it was near one in the afternoon and sunny skies were still present. We then ventured east to our target areas, passing through Anaconda, MT (home to some of our most loved storm cells), and the arriving in Butte. We wasted time until three pm admiring the Berkeley Pit. Noticing several small rain blips appear on the radar, we headed south for the action on I-15. Several miles south of Butte, we made a gas0up stop and a truck stop, filled up again of coffee and food before leaving for a thunderstorm that had popped up ten miles to our south. Unfortunately by the time we had caught up to it, it had not only passed over the interstate, but was only producing two lightning strikes every ten minutes. With the time now four in the afternoon, we continued south on 15 until I looked at the radar and realized the horrible truth. Several massive storm cells had popped up to our north, specifically Anaconda and Butte, where we had just been. Nothing was to our south for us to chase and we had no time to turn around. Completely disheartened by the unfortunate events taking place, I began to desperately pray when I was asked if I wished to continues south on 15, our cut of onto highway 49 through Divide.

            “Lord, help me to make the right decision.” I prayed. Before I knew it, I found the words “Keep south” slipping of my tongue. We continued south towards Dillon, where we stopped at Safeway for more coffee. At this point I was really beginning to doubt myself and threw myself into a panic. Had I made the wrong choice of day to chase?  Was this just not supposed to happen this year? I told myself over and over, in hope of some form of consolidation that everything happens for a reason. Out of instinct, I looked at the radar picture one last time. I noticed a small band of showers about to pass over the Idaho/ Montana border. We left Dillon and entered the Big Hole Valley, hoping to catch the small cell that was beginning to developed, heading straight for us. I prayed one last, very desperate prayer.

            “Lord, I’m just going to wing this and go without the radar. For old times’ sake.”

 

            Within a minute of saying amen, our bars dropped to NO SERVICE and we were forced to go without radar and chase with our eyes. After coming around a large bed, we were greeted by a very well-developed storm featuring a strong shelf cloud and lighting every minute or so…and that was only on the outside of the cell. Ten minutes later, we found ourselves admiring the storm, accidentally, and by a beautiful chance, stuck under the main rotation of the now tornadic storm. We made a quick deployment, collecting our data that was much needed, coming close to being struck by a lightning bolt, stuffing the pod back into the car, and simply enjoying the storm as the rain and hail moved in. after all was said and done, we left, the time now five in the afternoon. We witnessed the strongest Mammatus clouds we’ve seen, and crashed on the couch upon arriving back at base. With our mission accomplished, we slept soundfully and woke rested and ready to head home the next day, though after reaching St. Regis the next day, we realized that we felt up to staying an extra day of two. Unfortunately because we had already gone too far, we continued homebound, making in to the Cascade Mountains, staying the night in a hotel in Leavenworth (specifically, The Enzian).

            Though we will not be releasing our findings, I can tell you that we are now preparing for our trip next year. From now until February, we will be reading up and studying the synoptic patterns of severe weather in our target area for 2013. Come March through May, we will monitor weather conditions. When June arrives we will begin ordering any needed equipment and doing test chases and deployments. In July we leave again, this time for ultimate success. 2013, we’re heading even further east. Our new chase territory lies in the boundaries of the real storms. We will have the chance to deploy on the real Great Plains storms. You guys, we’re going to South Dakota and Minnesota in seven months. Tornado Alley.

The Chase Is On

Well, now that the low pressure system has finally begun to fire storms over the Puget Sound, they will be moving North/ North East by this afternoon. Our chase day so far has started off with lighting outside our window and torrential rains that just do not seem to want to go away. As I stated yesterday, the storms of the Central Cascades region will begin to develop from 18z to 19z, so that gives us our time to pack and prepare the vehicle. Because supercells become more likely from 4 to 7pm, we shall be leaving our current location around 3pm.

{SPC Friday Tornado Outlook}

                This morning the SPC had released their severe weather outlook, giving our targeted area a 2% chance of seeing a tornado (and that is as good as it gets throughout the entire nation) within fifteen miles of any given point. This is due to sufficient shear standing at thirty to fifty knots and large CAPE of 1000+ J/km.

{SPC FridaySevere Hail Outlook}



{SPC Friday Severe Wind Outlook}




At this moment the SPC has issued their current mesoscale discusion...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2012 
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OREGON/ERN WASHINGTON AND ADJACENT

   IDAHO 

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201632Z - 201800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT

   THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  

   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL APPEARS GENERALLY SUBSIDENT ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  BUT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION...AND DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WALLOWA/BLUE MOUNTAINS VICINITY NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT CAPE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MODERATELY LARGE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CASCADES.  GUIDANCE INDICATES STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...NEAR/NORTH OF THE YAKIMA VALLEY.

Severe Weather to Hit the Northern Rockies Again

                SPC has now given North Central Washington, The Idaho Panhandle, and North Western Montana a slight chance of severe weather this Friday. While there seems to be no imminent threat for tornadoes in the highlighted areas, there is a 15% chance of a severe storms developing within the given area.  Looking at the forecast models, the hardest hit areas will involve the northern and central Cascade Mountains with a widespread chance of a quarter to half an inch of rain within a three hour period. Strong humidity will spread across the region with winds varying from nine to twenty three knots. Dew points are expected to stay mild with hot temperatures. With a mix of low sheer and a strong CAPE, the chance for tornadoes will be low, though strong winds, heavy rains, frequent and dangerous lightning, and hail to reside. Storm are expected to fire fairly early (11am PDT to 3pm PDT) and develop further from there.  Because the low pressure system that is moving its way north will be aided by cold air, the most common cells that are predicted to form will be multicell’s and supercells- though large hail will be the primary threat.



At the moment our team is planning to head up to the northern portion of the highlighted area for a possible deployment, as we have been on the road and collecting our data since the 7^th of July. Though we have not seen a tornado yet, we have taken data from a wall cloud. Our most productive days have so far fallen on the 10^th, 14^th, 15th, and hopefully the 20^th.

                On the 10,^th while we were able to do our deployment we did face quite the serious threat- lighting. Though we were already well aware of the strong threat for the electrical discharge, we did expect it to be as frequent as it was- especially when it struck 500 yards to the south west of where we were deploying.  We collected data on several other storms in both the Bitterroot and Big Hole Valley of South Western Montana. Add an eerie orange and purple glow to the skies due to the many wildfires in the area and we had ourselves on heck of a chase day.

The Road

               As a research team we do travel quite a bit so that we may find the perfect storm for deployment. Though I, myself have been quite the road trip prodigy my entire life (at one year old my parents drove me from Portland to Seattle in three hours), not everyone else has. It is here that I shall share my knowledge of life on the road. What kind of road trip will we be talking about? Well, we’re going to be talking about the one taking place in less than 24 hours.

                Over the past five years, the ROTATE team has managed to drive from our headquarters in Seattle, Washington and to our chasing domain in Montana in a matter of twelve hours or less. We first begin by checking the forecast models when we enter within ten days of the trip. Afterwards we take inventory of what we have and what we need to order on-line, do several test deployments, and by the time we need to pack everything up we have all that we need- including the training- and load everything in the back of our vehicle . We end the week by going to bed at 7pm.

                That Saturday morning (as usual) we wake up at 4am, shower, do hair, make-up, etc., and proceed to walk out the door. From there we drive for four hours before stopping for breakfast in central Washington. By 8:45 we are back on the road, driving five more hours into Coure D’ Alene, Idaho by 1pm. We usually stop at a Carl Jr.’s or a Sonic before continuing our trek through the Idaho panhandle and into western Montana. As part of tradition we stop in St. Regis, Montana for a snack and maybe a little bit of splurging at the tourist store at the gas station. Dinner usually falls around 4pm at a pizza place in Missoula before we head south to our temporary base. All in all, we arrive around 7pm MDT, unpack, set up equipment and go to bed by 9pm.

                Now, on a more personal level, while taking my five hour shift at the wheel, we have the radio going constantly. I myself prefer to drive for long periods of time to Bon Jovi, Journey and Def Leppard. My brother prefers that apocalyptical music of Likin Park and some other weird bands that refuse to record quality, good mood music. Also, I usually go for a coffee whenever the chance is offered. Driving for five hours through plains can be very tiring. However, past noon I shoot for water so as not to dehydrate myself along the way.

                We, like most chase teams out there, have several good luck charms also. I have a necklace that I was wearing when I saw my first tornado back in’09. My brother has a plaque like thing with a tornado and lightning inscribed on it along with the ROTATE logo on it. As a conclusion, and mostly out of exhaustion and dread of the coming days, I leave you with this post. I will not be checking back until my return on Thursday, July 12^th. Until then, I bid you adieu and many blessings.

             

Bipolar Forecast Models

               I apologize for the confusion that I am relaying. Now that the forecast models are beginning to look better than before, and have entered the “some-what reliable” time frame, the ROTATE team is beginning to throw around the idea of where our target areas are going to be. At the moment we are considering the northern portion of the Big Hole Valley and Butte, Montana. So far it does appear that we are actually going to get a full 24 hours to set up and have everything prepared on Sunday. Considering the models, we are looking into the deployment in the Butte area on Monday and the Big Hole Valley deployment on the following day, though even at this point we cannot be completely sure. The weather changes faster than a teenagers relationship status- let’s just end it at that.

                On Thursday we will be display a more fun post featuring life on the road; Until then, goodbye everyone. (:

Forecast Update

                    Despite the fact that the forecast models hinted at severe weather for three consecutive days, this morning they dropped out and began forecasting solid sun and heat for our chase domain. Now, I will once again state that though the time frame for the forecast is relatively smaller and more susceptible to accuracy, we are still looking at conditions eight days out. From my thirteen years of studying meteorology I can tell you that they will most likely change by the time they are guaranteed accuracy-for better or for worse. As of now we are still looking at good amount of lift and instability, but it seems that our CAPE has flown the coop along with any source of moisture. To better communicate the desperation here, I will not-so-happily say that this next week is our first and last chance to deploy and collect data on a tornado this entire year. Our next chance comes again next summer in the southern portions of Montana and the Black Hills of South Dakota. Believe me when I say that this forecast worries me…

Promising Models

Well, our forecast models are beginning to look promising. Though you can’t completely trust what the models predict eight days out, they have kept a strong consistency for the first full day of the trip. If the forecast models remain the way they are, our first day will no longer be just setting up while the “less committed” let’s say, go fishing. We’re now throwing in the possibility of setting up all of our equipment after we pull up to our base for the times being, regardless whether or not we’ve been driving for fifteen straight hours.

                The new “Day 1 deployment” plan does appear promising, but exhausting. What we’re currently looking at, eight days from the trip, is a very minor, yet present CAPE over the area, perfect shear conditions, strong lift, and a good amount of instability. The only noticeable problem that continues to occur is a lack of atmospheric moisture. Low humidity rates are forecasted to engulf the area. Temperatures are expected to hang around in the 70’s and 80’s, with some spots hitting the 90’s.

                During our arrival day, thunderstorms are expected in the northern and central portions of western Montana. If anything does happen to develop, we do not expect to try a deployment. After fifteen straight hours of driving it just doesn’t seem to be worth it…unless there’s a tornado watch- then it will be worth it. We will be checking in again on Monday with a hopefully more accurate forecast.

Tropical Depression Debby Still Causing Trouble



{Debby drowns Flroida}



{Debby dumps 5.02 inches of rain on Florida}

As we are all well aware, Tropical Storm Debby has been on quite the rampage, with the storm bringing over thirty inches of rain into the Florida panhandle and the northern portions of the state. Debby still continues to pack 40mph winds, with the surface winds sustaining 30mph. Late this Tuesday afternoon, Debby had made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida. That evening, Debby was downgraded to a Tropical depression. The downgrading of the tropical system may be contributed to the storm wrapping dry air up into its center. Despite this lack of upper level moisture, Debby still continues to send a deluge upon northern Florida. Today, the tropical depression dumped just over five inches of rain in north eastern Florida, thus creating a massive six foot wide and twelve to fifteen foot deep sinkhole in a portion of I-10. 

{Along with the sinkhole opening up on I-10,
this one tried to swallow
up several moving vans in a parking lot}

With the five inches of rain dropped onto northern Florida today, the city streets filled with the rain waters. This occurred because the rainfall was so rapid that the sewer systems could not retain the water, thus causing the excess precipitation to gather on the streets. Just today, the National weather Service based in Tallahassee, Florida issued a total of eleven flashflood warnings. Luckily, Debby was headed eastbound. As of now, Debby was about 83 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving at a snail’s pace of 6 mph (Info courtesy of the National Hurricane Center). As for tomorrow the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) forecasted that Debby will continue to dump near 5 inches of rain near its center.


{Day 2 outlooks from the HPC & NOAA}

As Debby begins to veer offshore, it is forecasted to strengthen to about 50 miles per hour. Given the erratic path of Debby, the forecast models have not been able to accurately nail Debby’s path. Remember when it was a tropical low that was forecasted to hit the Florida panhandle and travel west into Texas? Well, now that Debby has made a clear cut across Florida and is headed north east (at 6pmh as of 8:00pm EDT), what’s to say that it won’t continue its path then head towards New England? With the unpredictability of Debby’s path, anything may be possible. However, now that the tropical depression is heading off into the Atlantic, her path may be easier to define.

Severe Weather In Northwestern Montana Today

              As I previously stated, it is far too early to check for accurate forecast models. However, with the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks for July issued, we are running our forecast reviews VIA that. As for July the seasonal outlooks are forecasting a drier, hotter climate sequence for South Western Montana. However, the daytime heating may lead to strong thunderstorms developing over the area.

{CPC Temperature Forecast}

{CPC Precipiation Forecast}

                  

 

                Luckily the severe weather season for Montana has appeared to kick off fairy well, with the June 5^th event that produced several tornadoes by Livingston. About a week later yet another severe weather event occurred in western Montana with severe weather reports and warnings spreading all the way from the Flat Head Lake region and down in Ravalli County.

                Today, June 25, the severe set up is again targeting the North Western part of Montana. A widespread risk of thunderstorms hover across the majority of The Big Sky State.

{Thunderstorm forecast countesy The Weather Channel}

{Severe wind threat, courtesy of the SPC}

{Hail threat today, courtesy of the SPC}

{Threat for tornadoes today, courtesy of thr SPC}

                

{Glacier National Park, Montana as of 3pm MDT}

              As of about 3pm MDT in Glacier National Park there were no significant cells to speak of. However several clusters of cumulus clouds had begun to develop.



{North of Kailspell, Montana as of 3pm MDT}

           In Kalispell, a line of well-defined cumulus/ cumulonimbus clouds had begun to form. It is still too early in the day to count on anything of note to fire up, but several hours from now (specifically from 4pm to 7pm) significant thunderstorm development is expect to occur.       

            




           *Remember, if you notice that you are within the severe weather area, stay alert for any watches or warnings that may come your way. If you hear thunder or see lightning, go inside or find a safe spot for shelter. If a tornado developes in your area, find shelter. A basement, lower floor bathroom or an interior room, such as a closet will serve protection. If in a vehicle, find the nearest possible building. If there is no shelter around, pull your vehicle over and find a low-lying area and cover your head. And to the chasers out there: Best of luck to you. Stay safe!

Prepartion Begins

Well, I believe it be best that I start off with explaining what “The ROTATE project” is. This is long term project that I have been working on since 2008. Aiding me in ROTATE is my younger brother, Michael. ROTATE (Rotational Origins of Tornadoes And Thunderstorms Experiment) is my brother and I doing our best to see if there is a significant and noticeable difference in any of the inflow elements into a wall cloud that produces and tornado and a wall cloud that does not for my senior project in high school. I really do hope to further expand this project into my college years and maybe my work life. Though this strenuous task requires us to drive from our home base of Seattle, Washington all the way into South Western Montana, we seldom consider it a hindrance to our research attempts, despite it being a fifteen hour drive out there.

                As of now, our upcoming trip for 2012 take’s off in just thirteen days. Compared to last year, the ROTATE crew is far more prepared. When we started in 2008, we took physical observations of severe storm cells (some tornadic) throughout Central Montana, into the Black Hills of South Dakota and several areas of Northern Wyoming. In 2009 we took more physical observations of a wall cloud producing super cell in south Madison County, Montana. As of 2010 we actually began buying equipment to measure the storm cells with. Due to the lack of funding we were only able to buy an anemometer and a camera. Luckily, and for the first time, 2010 brought us within a half mile of a funnel cloud in northern Beaverhead County, Montana. Just two days later we were able to make observations on a solid .75 inch hail producing storm in Deer Lodge, Montana. Come 2011 and we had invested in a small mesonet-like piece of equipment that we had mounted to the roof of our vehicle and with that we sampled two large hail producers in Silver Bow and Beaver Head County, Montana.

                Alas, now that 2012 has come, I invested all of my free spending money into the equipment. As we set off to Montana this year, we will have in tow a large deployable mesonet (okay, really it’s a weather station with a mount), a large mountable anemometer, and our past usable equipment. Though it is too early to accurately review the forecast models for the trip, my brother and I have no issue in trusting that the trip will turn out to be a successful one in deed. As it said in the Bible, “With God, all things are possible.”