Promising Models

Well, our forecast models are beginning to look promising. Though you can’t completely trust what the models predict eight days out, they have kept a strong consistency for the first full day of the trip. If the forecast models remain the way they are, our first day will no longer be just setting up while the “less committed” let’s say, go fishing. We’re now throwing in the possibility of setting up all of our equipment after we pull up to our base for the times being, regardless whether or not we’ve been driving for fifteen straight hours.

                The new “Day 1 deployment” plan does appear promising, but exhausting. What we’re currently looking at, eight days from the trip, is a very minor, yet present CAPE over the area, perfect shear conditions, strong lift, and a good amount of instability. The only noticeable problem that continues to occur is a lack of atmospheric moisture. Low humidity rates are forecasted to engulf the area. Temperatures are expected to hang around in the 70’s and 80’s, with some spots hitting the 90’s.

                During our arrival day, thunderstorms are expected in the northern and central portions of western Montana. If anything does happen to develop, we do not expect to try a deployment. After fifteen straight hours of driving it just doesn’t seem to be worth it…unless there’s a tornado watch- then it will be worth it. We will be checking in again on Monday with a hopefully more accurate forecast.