Promising Models

Well, our forecast models are beginning to look promising. Though you can’t completely trust what the models predict eight days out, they have kept a strong consistency for the first full day of the trip. If the forecast models remain the way they are, our first day will no longer be just setting up while the “less committed” let’s say, go fishing. We’re now throwing in the possibility of setting up all of our equipment after we pull up to our base for the times being, regardless whether or not we’ve been driving for fifteen straight hours.

                The new “Day 1 deployment” plan does appear promising, but exhausting. What we’re currently looking at, eight days from the trip, is a very minor, yet present CAPE over the area, perfect shear conditions, strong lift, and a good amount of instability. The only noticeable problem that continues to occur is a lack of atmospheric moisture. Low humidity rates are forecasted to engulf the area. Temperatures are expected to hang around in the 70’s and 80’s, with some spots hitting the 90’s.

                During our arrival day, thunderstorms are expected in the northern and central portions of western Montana. If anything does happen to develop, we do not expect to try a deployment. After fifteen straight hours of driving it just doesn’t seem to be worth it…unless there’s a tornado watch- then it will be worth it. We will be checking in again on Monday with a hopefully more accurate forecast.

Tropical Depression Debby Still Causing Trouble



{Debby drowns Flroida}



{Debby dumps 5.02 inches of rain on Florida}

As we are all well aware, Tropical Storm Debby has been on quite the rampage, with the storm bringing over thirty inches of rain into the Florida panhandle and the northern portions of the state. Debby still continues to pack 40mph winds, with the surface winds sustaining 30mph. Late this Tuesday afternoon, Debby had made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida. That evening, Debby was downgraded to a Tropical depression. The downgrading of the tropical system may be contributed to the storm wrapping dry air up into its center. Despite this lack of upper level moisture, Debby still continues to send a deluge upon northern Florida. Today, the tropical depression dumped just over five inches of rain in north eastern Florida, thus creating a massive six foot wide and twelve to fifteen foot deep sinkhole in a portion of I-10. 

{Along with the sinkhole opening up on I-10,
this one tried to swallow
up several moving vans in a parking lot}

With the five inches of rain dropped onto northern Florida today, the city streets filled with the rain waters. This occurred because the rainfall was so rapid that the sewer systems could not retain the water, thus causing the excess precipitation to gather on the streets. Just today, the National weather Service based in Tallahassee, Florida issued a total of eleven flashflood warnings. Luckily, Debby was headed eastbound. As of now, Debby was about 83 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving at a snail’s pace of 6 mph (Info courtesy of the National Hurricane Center). As for tomorrow the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) forecasted that Debby will continue to dump near 5 inches of rain near its center.


{Day 2 outlooks from the HPC & NOAA}

As Debby begins to veer offshore, it is forecasted to strengthen to about 50 miles per hour. Given the erratic path of Debby, the forecast models have not been able to accurately nail Debby’s path. Remember when it was a tropical low that was forecasted to hit the Florida panhandle and travel west into Texas? Well, now that Debby has made a clear cut across Florida and is headed north east (at 6pmh as of 8:00pm EDT), what’s to say that it won’t continue its path then head towards New England? With the unpredictability of Debby’s path, anything may be possible. However, now that the tropical depression is heading off into the Atlantic, her path may be easier to define.

Severe Weather In Northwestern Montana Today

              As I previously stated, it is far too early to check for accurate forecast models. However, with the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlooks for July issued, we are running our forecast reviews VIA that. As for July the seasonal outlooks are forecasting a drier, hotter climate sequence for South Western Montana. However, the daytime heating may lead to strong thunderstorms developing over the area.

{CPC Temperature Forecast}

{CPC Precipiation Forecast}

                  

 

                Luckily the severe weather season for Montana has appeared to kick off fairy well, with the June 5^th event that produced several tornadoes by Livingston. About a week later yet another severe weather event occurred in western Montana with severe weather reports and warnings spreading all the way from the Flat Head Lake region and down in Ravalli County.

                Today, June 25, the severe set up is again targeting the North Western part of Montana. A widespread risk of thunderstorms hover across the majority of The Big Sky State.

{Thunderstorm forecast countesy The Weather Channel}

{Severe wind threat, courtesy of the SPC}

{Hail threat today, courtesy of the SPC}

{Threat for tornadoes today, courtesy of thr SPC}

                

{Glacier National Park, Montana as of 3pm MDT}

              As of about 3pm MDT in Glacier National Park there were no significant cells to speak of. However several clusters of cumulus clouds had begun to develop.



{North of Kailspell, Montana as of 3pm MDT}

           In Kalispell, a line of well-defined cumulus/ cumulonimbus clouds had begun to form. It is still too early in the day to count on anything of note to fire up, but several hours from now (specifically from 4pm to 7pm) significant thunderstorm development is expect to occur.       

            




           *Remember, if you notice that you are within the severe weather area, stay alert for any watches or warnings that may come your way. If you hear thunder or see lightning, go inside or find a safe spot for shelter. If a tornado developes in your area, find shelter. A basement, lower floor bathroom or an interior room, such as a closet will serve protection. If in a vehicle, find the nearest possible building. If there is no shelter around, pull your vehicle over and find a low-lying area and cover your head. And to the chasers out there: Best of luck to you. Stay safe!

Prepartion Begins

Well, I believe it be best that I start off with explaining what “The ROTATE project” is. This is long term project that I have been working on since 2008. Aiding me in ROTATE is my younger brother, Michael. ROTATE (Rotational Origins of Tornadoes And Thunderstorms Experiment) is my brother and I doing our best to see if there is a significant and noticeable difference in any of the inflow elements into a wall cloud that produces and tornado and a wall cloud that does not for my senior project in high school. I really do hope to further expand this project into my college years and maybe my work life. Though this strenuous task requires us to drive from our home base of Seattle, Washington all the way into South Western Montana, we seldom consider it a hindrance to our research attempts, despite it being a fifteen hour drive out there.

                As of now, our upcoming trip for 2012 take’s off in just thirteen days. Compared to last year, the ROTATE crew is far more prepared. When we started in 2008, we took physical observations of severe storm cells (some tornadic) throughout Central Montana, into the Black Hills of South Dakota and several areas of Northern Wyoming. In 2009 we took more physical observations of a wall cloud producing super cell in south Madison County, Montana. As of 2010 we actually began buying equipment to measure the storm cells with. Due to the lack of funding we were only able to buy an anemometer and a camera. Luckily, and for the first time, 2010 brought us within a half mile of a funnel cloud in northern Beaverhead County, Montana. Just two days later we were able to make observations on a solid .75 inch hail producing storm in Deer Lodge, Montana. Come 2011 and we had invested in a small mesonet-like piece of equipment that we had mounted to the roof of our vehicle and with that we sampled two large hail producers in Silver Bow and Beaver Head County, Montana.

                Alas, now that 2012 has come, I invested all of my free spending money into the equipment. As we set off to Montana this year, we will have in tow a large deployable mesonet (okay, really it’s a weather station with a mount), a large mountable anemometer, and our past usable equipment. Though it is too early to accurately review the forecast models for the trip, my brother and I have no issue in trusting that the trip will turn out to be a successful one in deed. As it said in the Bible, “With God, all things are possible.”