SPC has
now given North Central Washington, The Idaho Panhandle, and North Western
Montana a slight chance of severe weather this Friday. While there seems to be
no imminent threat for tornadoes in the highlighted areas, there is a 15%
chance of a severe storms developing within the given area. Looking at the forecast models, the hardest
hit areas will involve the northern and central Cascade Mountains with a
widespread chance of a quarter to half an inch of rain within a three hour
period. Strong humidity will spread across the region with winds varying from
nine to twenty three knots. Dew points are expected to stay mild with hot temperatures. With a mix of low sheer and a strong CAPE, the chance for tornadoes
will be low, though strong winds, heavy rains, frequent and dangerous
lightning, and hail to reside. Storm are expected to fire fairly early (11am
PDT to 3pm PDT) and develop further from there. Because the low pressure system that is moving
its way north will be aided by cold air, the most common cells that are
predicted to form will be multicell’s and supercells- though large hail will be
the primary threat.
At the moment our team is planning to head up to the
northern portion of the highlighted area for a possible deployment, as we have
been on the road and collecting our data since the 7th of July.
Though we have not seen a tornado yet, we have taken data from a wall cloud.
Our most productive days have so far fallen on the 10th, 14th,
15th, and hopefully the 20th.
On the
10,th while we were able to do our deployment we did face quite the
serious threat- lighting. Though we were already well aware of the strong
threat for the electrical discharge, we did expect it to be as frequent as it
was- especially when it struck 500 yards to the south west of where we were
deploying. We collected data on several
other storms in both the Bitterroot and Big Hole Valley of South Western
Montana. Add an eerie orange and purple glow to the skies due to the many wildfires in the area and we had ourselves on heck of a chase day.
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